The Shift Code

What 22,000 Projects Reveal About Success and Failure

Project Management Institute Season 3 Episode 4

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0:00 | 47:46

In this episode of The Shift Code Podcast, host Pierre Le Manh is joined by Alexander Budzier, Fellow in Management Practice at the University of Oxford's Saïd Business School, to share insights on what project success actually means and why traditional metrics fail to capture it.

What You’ll Learn:

  • What truly separates successful projects from slow-motion failures
  • Why the best leaders focus on building systems rather than giving firebrand speeches
  • How projects can succeed spectacularly on one dimension while failing on another
  • The “uniqueness trap” as the single biggest red flag for cost blowouts
  • Why investing 20–30% of the total cost in planning dramatically improves outcomes
  • How AI is already boosting individual productivity by 40%, but only 5% at the corporate level

Alexander Budzier is a Fellow in Management Practice at the University of Oxford's Saïd Business School, where he researches and teaches how to set major projects up for success. His dataset of more than 22,000 capital investment projects across 126 countries is the empirical foundation for two books published by Wiley in 2025: How to Measure Anything in Project Management, co-authored with Douglas Hubbard and Andreas Leed, an Amazon number-one bestseller in software and IT project management; and Intelligent Change: The Science Behind Digital Transformations, which draws on Oxford research to establish what actually drives success in digital programs.

His research has appeared in the Harvard Business Review, where his article on uniqueness bias, co-authored with Bent Flyvbjerg, was selected for HBR's 10 Must Reads 2026, and in leading journals across management, energy, and transport. He is CEO of Oxford Global Projects, a specialist advisory firm, advising governments and major program teams across transport, infrastructure, IT, and energy. He completed his doctorate at Oxford in 2015, having previously worked at McKinsey's Business Technology Office in Düsseldorf and Chicago.

Episode Resources: